Derrius Guice | 5’11 | 218 | Estimate 40 time: low 4.4 to mid 4.5 |
Games Watched:(All 2017)
@ 4 (7 at time) Alabama, @ (21 at time) Florida, @ Ole Miss, v. 14 Notre Dame (Citrus Bowl)
– 2017 All-SEC 2nd Team
– 2016 All-SEC 1st Team
– 2016 led SEC in YPC, Ground Yards, and total (non-passing) TDs.
Injuries and workload:
Injuries I could identify are nagging ankle/knee/thigh injuries throughout his sophomore and junior seasons that was flared up in 2017 in the season opener v. Mississippi State. He sat out against Troy in 2017 and has sat for 3 games during his freshman and sophomore years. This displays he will likely play through small injuries in the league, allowing him to be a dependable workhorse. His playstyle doesn’t really give me cause for future injury concern aside from small dings that he has shown in college, probably a 15-16 game a year guy. His career workload is just over 500 touches which seems to be a decent workload for a college player. He is an interesting case when it comes to his production/touches comparison as, he has 53% of the carries but, only 46% of the ground yards. All other RBs I have tested this on has had a greater ground yards share than tough share. He also has 6% of the receptions and 5% of receiving yards, which is expected as many of his receptions are a few yards behind LOS. This leads me to believe that he will need to be “fed” during the course of an NFL game to maintain effective YPC.
Best: Burst, Mental processing, Breaking tackles
Athletically, Guice is solid in all categories, not above average or below average in any real athletic field paired with a solid BMI and average height/weight/build. I would expect his combine to look similar to Joe Mixon’s last year. He displayed the ability to play through injuries, compete at a consistent level against all competition, and was effective when depended on in clutch or short yardage situations at LSU. In the pre-play, Guice turns his head to read the defense and shows that he is solid at identifying where the hole is likely to be during that run. At the snap, he has good burst and runs downhill towards the hole with solid patience while being solid at finding the “home-run” run. He is solid at finding daylight on Inside Zone and man blocked runs in addition to being good at finding cutback lanes on Inside Zone with a good jumpcut. He is good to very good at separating from the hole once he hits it on all run types, very good at forcing defenders to change their pursuit angle, good at getting more than what’s blocked, and good at breaking upper body arm tackles when getting through the hole as well as downfield. When contacted downfield, he has solid aggression, physical @POA, embraces contact against LBs and DBs, and is solid at falling forward against small groups. He is good at finishing with power or speed, solid at finishing with elusiveness and balance usually using a jumpcut, juke, stiff arm, shoulder charge or a turning of his back to defender and leg press them forward to generate YAC. In contact situations, he protects the ball with two hands, keeps his body between the ball and the defender, runs behind his pads, usually keeps the ball high and tight, and I trust him to hold onto the ball. In the receiving game, he is good at catching through contact, solid at displaying his hands/numbers to the QB both on routes and as a late play check-down, solid at creating separation mentally through setting up cuts and knowing where the down marker is, solid at creating separation physically through boxing out defenders and pushing off at cut points, with a simple RB route tree of screen, flat, curl, check+release, and out routes. As a blocker, he flashes good technique.
Worst: Receiving, Pass Pro, “Sometimes”
Guice does not display a high motor or hustle downfield to block and when he does it’s usually ineffective. After receiving the hand-off, he does not move defenders out of the hole with his eyes, he is adequate at finding daylight, as well as cutback lanes on outside zone runs and he stops his feet in the hole when it is filled by LBs or larger DBs. When forced to create something from a broken play on MBS blocked runs, he is inconsistent. Sometimes he will make 2 defenders miss in the backfield to gain 5 yards out of nothing and sometimes he will just run into his OL, get touched and fall down. Through contact, he only drives his feet during his leg press move, does not fight for extra yards constantly, doesn’t really fall forward in packs, and is adequate at breaking arm tackles to his lower body. As a receiver, he has a tendency to trap the ball with his body rather than catch with his hands which causes him to have a poor catch radius and be ineffective when lined up wide (only ran flats/outs from wide). He is adequate at turning upfield after catching the ball and doesn’t pull away or burn defenders to create separation with burst. As a blocker, he doesn’t display a want to block, has an adequate anchor, poor hand usage/placement/power, adequate at IDing blitzes, and usually has his head down when blocking.
Pro Comp. and Projections:
Ceiling: Melvin Gordon
Floor: Trent Richardson
Reasoning: He is a solid all-around RB who will likely be looked at to be a primary back at the next level and expected to carry the load for a team. He may struggle with vision sometimes and not really churn out those extra yards all the time but, he will consistently pick you up the yards you need to stay on schedule and break free occasionally.
A 2 down back with upwards potential to be used as a workhorse that you can win with. He has been split out wide but, I don’t believe he excels in that position. Guice is a quality player but, is a very sometimes player. He fights for extra yards, sometimes. He drives his feet, sometimes. He creates something out of nothing, sometimes. He falls forward, sometimes. He blocks well, sometimes. That is really my key issue with him; if a coach can get him to apply himself consistently, he will be a force in the league. He is clearly below Barkley but, remains a fringe first-round pick in my view.